16 June, 2006

World: Barley markets will follow the firm trend of other grains in the new crop year

Analysts say that at first sight the world barley balance does not look bullish for the next crop year. Larger crops all over Europe and in North Africa will more than compensate for smaller crops in North America.

Nevertheless, there will be the firm markets of all other grains, lesser availability of feed wheat leading to larger barley consumption, excellent beef markets needing more feed barley in Canada and Australia.

Australia's new crop may become a major factor already in the weeks to come, unless weather conditions improve. Saudi-Arabia is reported to have imported more than 7.5 million t of feed barley in 2005/06, and will need at least the same amount next year. So far official S/D's had put the Saudi demand at maximum 6.5 million t per year.

The larger crop figures come from Spain, Russia and Ukraine, where we also expect a large increase of domestic consumption. And by planting time of winter grains in Europe and North America one may see an effect of expected lower barley crops in 2007. Therefore it is likely that barley markets will follow the firm trend of other grains in the new crop year.

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